The taste of tomorrow
A forward look at flavor in the coming millennium.

By Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan

It's going to be a magnificent millennium for restaurants! Let's face it. Flavor-craving Americans have never lived so vicariously through food. They read recipes like novels, are more interested in the "Food Channel" than in soap operas, and can't wait to taste the latest trendy fare.

Look for a new generation of sauces to accompany popular appetizers like skewered shrimp and chicken.

In fact, our passion for a flavor adventure has been credited with last year's rise in new food product trials, up nine points since 1995; a considerable change from the 13-point slump experienced from 1987 to 1995 (Parade Magazine Survey, 1998). At the same time that 70% are enjoying American cuisine, mainstream tastes have continued to diversify, with 62% now regularly enjoying Italian, 60% Chinese, and 57% Mexican (Taylor Nelson Sofres Intersearch, 1999).

Better yet, McKinsey & Co. predicts 30 billion new foodservice eating occasions by 2005, and DataMonitor reports that take-out sales topped $100 billion last year!

American tastes — and the restaurant industry — will be reinvigorated by a shift in culinary basics from French to the Far East. Exciting new flavor, cuisine and preparation descriptors will emerge. Other more traditional terms will wane.

But at the same time, signature ingredients, familiar flavor cues, and authentic dishes will be essential to coax today's "armchair" travelers to enthusiastically experience a "New World" of emerging food tastes. With their mainstream patrons frazzled by fusion and overwhelmed by choices, operators will be challenged to take a simpler, more sensible, yet very well-seasoned approach to restaurant fare.

The Americanization of flavor
It appears that creative restaurateurs may have gone too far, too fast — haphazardly mixing ingredients, ethnic flavorings, and cuisines. Not surprisingly, fusion cooking is fading as chefs bypass culinary complexities and contrasts for simpler and more sensitive Americanized fare. Mainstream customers want their food to taste familiar — different but not too different — and often with only a hint of foreign intrigue.

Watch for widespread acceptance of a simpler version of ethnic fusion, as chefs focus on highlighting only one signature spice, exotic vegetable, or other foreign ingredient, and menu designers provide familiar flavor cues to grab mainstream attention. For example, soy, teriyaki, ginger, and sesame are four mainstream flavor cues that provide a "comfort zone" for Asian-based menu items (FlavorTrend, 1999).

Despite the growing consumer affinity for a flavor adventure — 2,300 new spices and flavors were introduced in the last five years — "plain American" is the cuisine that three out of four adults say they enjoy most, up eight points since 1995 (Roper Starch Worldwide, 1998). However, while comfort or home-style foods have maintained their popularity — three-quarters of diners expect them on menus today — one-third are now searching out those with a "twist" (Market Facts, 1999).

While the last highly lucrative generation of comfort foods — mashed potatoes, meatloaf, and macaroni and cheese — focused on traditional cooking methods afforded by appliances of the '50s and '60s, the up-and-coming wave will be driven by time-honored, flavor-driven techniques highlighting "true" barbecued, wood-smoked, and slow-roasted foods.

Today, the allure of slow-cooked, spice-infused meat and smoked flavor has never been stronger. In fact, the term smoky (and smoked) is already virtually on a par with the "hot and spicy" trend, although spicy, zesty, and roasted — while still strong — have peaked. While the terms grilling and barbecue convey dramatically different taste sensations and techniques, they both continue to gain in strength and remain highly desirable as enticing flavor descriptors. Other terms, like marinated, are gaining in popularity; rotisserie has fallen dramatically; and mesquite has yet to capture mainstream appeal.

At the same time, other slow-cooking techniques are enjoying renewed appeal. While high-temperature methods like grilling over open flames, searing, or roasting have dominated cooking techniques for the last few years, slower, flavor-enhancing, low-temperature methods like braising, poaching, and slow-roasting are gaining in prominence. In addition, flavor-retaining techniques, including steaming, cooking in parchment or foil, and long, slow-simmered cooking, are moving into the limelight. Likewise, flavor-driven pre-cooking procedures, including crushing, dry rubbing, pressing, and roasting herbs, spices, and seeds, will also spur new descriptors and gain mainstream "trendy" attention (FlavorTrend, 1999).

Far Eastern influences
The impending shift of the technical basis of American chefs and culinarians from Classical French techniques to those of the Pacific Rim will undoubtedly have the greatest impact on the American palate.

The cuisines of Vietnam, Singapore, and, to some extent, Thailand have already become an integral part of current trend-setting California cuisine. Watch as tempura-style vegetables and satay-skewered chicken rise on appetizer charts, and wasabi, coconut milk, aged miso, fish sauces, rice paper, wonton wrappers, and dim sum gain in popularity.

With Asian recipes in newspapers and magazines increasing 85% in the past five years, it won't be long before Far Eastern varieties of basil, mint, shallots, exotic mushrooms, water spinach, long beans, and other herbs and vegetables find themselves likely substitutes for traditional fare. Thai dipping sauces, Asian chili paste, Indonesian sambals, and Indian chutneys will provide new-found yet somewhat familiar options for traditional sauces and spreads. The characteristic spices of India — cumin, turmeric, fenugreek, and mustard seed — will begin to grab mainstream popularity, even if that's not necessarily the case with Indian cuisine. And don't forget: Today, the term Asian is preferred term over Oriental.

The influence of Pan Asian cooking will accelerate the emerging softer-flavor movement, in contrast to the bold and burning trends of prior years. Today, basil, dill, parsley, coriander, ginger, and rosemary are enjoying widespread appeal among mainstream consumers. Likewise, maple, lemon, lime, honey, mango, balsamic, and red wine vinegars are keeping pace (FlavorTrend, 1999).

Applying a lighter touch to food flavors has long been one of the basic principles of California's cuisine. Watch for simple broths, vinaigrettes, and infused oils to continue to enjoy widespread appeal. Expect enthusiasm for citrus and fruit bases, reduction techniques such as roasting vine-ripe tomatoes and then reducing the juice, and new forms of pasta, rice, and noodles that contribute mild tastes and absorb flavors. Last but not least, look for the addition of cleansing spices — such as mint or lemon — as a taste-trailer to provide a light, bright finish to almost any meal.

The Far Eastern influence will also accelerate "natural" to the "norm." Fresh will be forced to get fresher, while vegetarian, organic, and locally grown foods will continue to gain ground. Chefs now trained in sustainable agricultural techniques as well as culinary sciences will embrace heirloom vegetables, baby vegetables, lesser-known American and international varieties, seasonally and locally grown foods, literally "living" foods, and more. The availability of fish and seafood in live tanks, the further mainstreaming of sushi, and the wide acceptance of products like seared tuna are all part of the emerging "living food" trend.

 

Fig. 1: Caribbean cuisine projections

Sweet and spicy Caribbean flavors are grabbing mainstream attention, and Mediterranean ingredients are seeing skyrocketing popularity .

Fig. 2: Mediterranean cuisine projections

Natural-food sales total $25.3 billion, organic foods total $6.6 billion, and more than half of restaurants with an average check of $15-plus report more frequent ordering of vegetarian dishes. It's clear that more intense flavors for fresh, natural, and healthful foods will be of critical importance in the decade ahead (NRA, 1999).

Latin effects
Despite a more Americanized approach to foreign flavors, mainstream diners are more adventuresome than ever, with 30% "always looking for new and unusual flavors" (Roper Starch Worldwide, 1998). Ethnic food is expected to account for one out of every seven U.S. food dollars in the decade ahead, increasing by $25 billion, or about 50% (Promar International, 1999).

Watch for our Latin neighbors to the South — Cuba, Argentina and Brazil — to add a much-needed twist to the "hot and spicy" movement with cumin, tropical chilies, saffron, smoked paprika, fiery peppers, and, yes, even more cilantro. The term spicy will bow to fiery. While the "hot" trend will continue to remain strong, expect heat-seeking chefs to shift away from red-hot peppers and jalapeño — both of which have peaked — and pursue other sources, including habañero and guajillo peppers.

Today, almost half of all non-commercial foodservice operators consider Nuevo Latino — a mixture of Mexican and Latin American — to be the greatest influence on menu development. As "Rodizios," South American steak houses serving flaming and flamboyant skewered meat and seafood, captivate America's "meat and potato" fans, watch for sales of hearty South American barbecue sauces, condiments, and skewered foods to soar.

Likewise, the mainstreaming of Caribbean cuisine will be applauded for its contribution of high-heat grilling and the addition of new subtle flavors to the growing trend to "sweetness." Expect mango, papaya, pineapple, coconut, and lime flavors to stay strong and fruit salsas and citrus-based marinades to proliferate. Look for the Islands' sweet and spicy grilling sauces, rubs and searing marinades to grab mainstream diners' attention as sugar cane, syrups, molasses, maple sugar, and other "brown" flavors twang America's hot and tangy taste buds.

Perhaps the most exciting "sleeper" cuisine for mainstream diners is still Mediterranean. While most diners are unable to describe the intricacies of Mediterranean cuisine, signature ingredients such as balsamic vinegar, olive oil, roasted garlic, and wine vinegar are all enjoying skyrocketing popularity.

While these Mediterranean ingredients will continue to be in the ascending phase of their trend lifecycle for years to come, other recent "gourmet" delights, such as sun-dried tomatoes, roasted peppers, and Portobello mushrooms, are already past their peak and on a downhill slide. And, coming back from the "back burner" in a totally new incarnation are familiar favorites such as horseradish and honey mustard.

 

Fig. 3: Cuisine terminology trends

Tuscany is seeing mainstream growth; Provencal is declining.

As the influence of foreign and regional cuisine matures, Americans will require a more sophisticated and specific set of flavor descriptors to use when talking about their food. Interest in the Caribbean will popularize tropical references. Cuban will connect best to Latin cuisine, but Havana may be the real surprise! And the continued interest in Mediterranean may finally allow Tuscany and other sub-European cuisines to gain widespread appeal (Figure 3).

Flavor sampling opportunities
Clearly, the desire for new tastes is driving the success of both appetizer and dessert samplers. Next to the fun of sharing with friends (63%), trying new flavors (62%) is the second most common reason for ordering an appetizer (Land O'Lakes FoodWire Survey, 1999). And, with the con- "fusion" caused by fusion cooking, it's not surprising that three-quarters of Americans say sampling is the best way to evaluate a new menu item (American Demographics, 1998).

With dippable appetizers like chicken strips, chicken nuggets, and onion rings still among the 10 best-selling appetizer menu items — and seafood now making up 50% of all appetizer sales — look for a new generation of tasty dipping condiments, sauces, and spreads. Also look at chain-specific skewered treats, Panini sandwiches, riblets, potstickers, spring rolls, and more.

In summary, if there are two words that will characterize the next few food years, they are flavored and familiar. Whether for fuel or for fun, tomorrow's diners will continue to seek adventure through the pleasant and provocative sensory novelty of foods.